Tensions continue to heighten for students and parents around what to do about college and how to finance their education. Once a secured differential, today the college worth and lifetime wage premium is under threat and is impacted by the way that students finance their education. For some students, Income Share Agreements (ISAs) have the potential to convert college, graduate and vocational education, into a higher yielding financial and life investment than if funded via traditional student loans.
Since the end of World War II, most Americans have believed that college is a key catalyst to fulfilling their American dream. At large, college education became a desired pathway associated to improvements in quality of life, income levels, and contribution to society. As a result, during the last seven decades, college enrollment has expanded from an exclusive “happy few” to the mass market.
Today, students and parents are increasingly questioning whether the costs and sacrifices to become a college graduate are worth it. This conversation holds true at dinner tables, regardless of individual and families’ socioeconomic class or cultural background, educational, professional, and personal aspirations, and immigration status or race. This tension between moral duty and financial reality, which is well described in this
New York Times
article, intensifies when mixed with students’ aspirations and potential.
Factors driving this conversation include, but are not limited to:
- Escalating and high college costs. Forbes America’s Top Colleges 2019
suggests the average total annual cost in one of the top 650 US educational institutions is $45,000.
- Low completion and graduation rates. Close to 45% of students enrolled in college fail to graduate within 6 years [1].
- Alarming student debt figures. Total student debt outstanding reached $1.6 trillion in the 4th quarter of 2018 with a 10-year CAGR of over 9% – 2.2x the rate of auto loans growth [2].
College Value Premium
Using available College Board data, I analyzed median earnings by education level and gender [3]. Overall, college graduates earn close to $20,000 more than those with some or no college, or associate degree.
The results also show a wage gender gap between median salaries of men and women, regardless of their educational level. It also hints that women see larger benefits in increases in median earnings from a college education than men.
It Matters How You Get There
So, is college worth it?
Forbes
emphatically says yes.
Liberty Street Economics, a blog featuring insights and analysis from the New York Fed also says yes, though suggests that for some students the costs outweigh the benefits. Data from the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles weekly earnings of wage and salary workers, implies a yes - full-time workers age 25 and over holding at least a bachelor’s degree report median weekly earnings of $1,357 compared to high school graduates (no college) of $751.
More and more people are on the “it depends”, “for some”, camp. Ryan Craig, Co-Founder and Managing Director of
University Ventures, suggests in his book, "
A New U - Faster + Cheaper Alternatives to College” a 2x2 school matrix with a selective or nonselective X axis and an affordable or not affordable Y axis. It forces students and parents to discuss education outcomes like student debt, post-graduation median salaries, and underemployment.
Alternatives to College
such as vocational, skills training organizations, paired with preparation and placement with employers, are creating pathways for job opportunities that are in demand and unmet today – according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics there were 7.3 million job openings as of the end of June 2019 [4].
I am part of the second group, but most importantly, as each student considers whether college is still worth it or not, I believe they should have access to transparent, comparable information with regards to the types of aid and available financing tools to fund college education.
Introducing ISAs into the discussion of the once stable, secured college worth and lifetime wage premium, invigorates the conversation. In a research paper published last year, the
Jain Family Institute
delves into the returns profile of a college education based on the financing instruments used. One of their key findings is that for the average American student, who requests approximately $30,000 for his or her college education, the lifetime college value and wage premium is reduced by 11% with an ISA compared to 25% with a student loan.
More data and research around these types of discounts would shed further light on the impact that student loans and ISAs have on the value of college for students. It seems to me, that one way for ISAs to earn their stripes is for them to generate robust evidence that when structured properly, they have the potential to make college, graduate and vocational skills-based education, a higher yielding life and financial investment than if funded via traditional student loans.
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Update on 29th October, 2019
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[1] Christensen Institute, “Unlocking the potential of ISAs to tackle the student debt crisis”, Aug 2019.
[2] U.S. Federal Reserve, G19, April 2019. Own Analysis.
[3] The College Board, Education Pays 2016, Data for Median Earnings (in 2015 Dollars) of Full-Time Year-Round Workers Age 25 to 34, by Gender and Education Level, 1975 to 2015. Own analysis.
[4] Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic New Release, Aug 6th, 2019.